The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the high altitude of Mexico City this weekend for a spectacular showcase of Latin American talent mixed with rising global contenders. Taking place at the iconic Arena CDMX in México D.F., Mexico, the stakes couldn’t be higher. For die-hard combat sports fans searching the UFC schedule today, looking ahead to UFC tomorrow, or trying to piece together the broader UFC schedule 2026, this is an event you cannot afford to miss.
Whether you’re tuning into the UFC Fight tonight live (depending on your time zone) or waking up early on Sunday, March 1, 2026, the UFC card is absolutely stacked from top to bottom. If you want to catch the UFC live, you’re in for a treat as former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno looks to defend his home turf against highly touted English prospect Lone’er Kavanagh.
In this comprehensive, deep-dive breakdown, we will preview every single matchup, analyze the stylistic clashes, discuss the brutal 7,000-foot elevation factor of Mexico City, and give you everything you need to know before you check the UFC results on Sunday morning. Grab your coffee, settle in, and let’s break down UFC Fight Night 268.
Event Details and How to Watch
Before we dive into the blood, sweat, and tactical analysis of the fights, let’s make sure your viewing itinerary is set.
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Event: UFC Fight Night 268: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
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Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
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Location: Arena CDMX, México D.F., Mexico
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Broadcast: Watch on UFC Fight Pass / Paramount+ (depending on region)
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Prelims Start Time: 4:00 AM GMT+6 (Sunday)
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Main Card Start Time: 7:00 AM GMT+6 (Sunday)
If you are looking for the next UFC Fight Night to deliver sheer chaos, the Mexico City crowd guarantees an atmosphere unlike any other in the sport.
The Altitude Factor: Surviving Arena CDMX
Before breaking down the individual fighters, we must acknowledge the invisible opponent in the Octagon this weekend: the elevation. Mexico City sits at a staggering 7,349 feet (2,240 meters) above sea level. In previous UFC events held in this arena, we have seen world-class, elite cardio machines completely gas out by the middle of the second round.
Fighters who did not arrive weeks in advance to acclimate to the thin air will find their muscles filling with lactic acid much faster than usual. Grappling exchanges become exponentially more exhausting. For the international fighters traveling into enemy territory, managing their gas tank will be just as critical as managing their opponent’s striking. Mexican fighters, many of whom train at or near this elevation, will carry a distinct physiological advantage into the later rounds.
Main Event Breakdown: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
The Stakes at Flyweight
The main event is a fascinating clash of eras and circumstances in the 125-pound division. Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno, currently ranked #6, is fighting for his relevance in the title picture. On the other side of the cage stands Lone’er Kavanagh, an unranked but incredibly dangerous English prospect stepping in on just three weeks’ notice to replace the injured Asu Almabayev.
Brandon Moreno (Mexico)
Record: 21-9-2
Fighting Out Of: Tijuana, Mexico
Style: Well-rounded, high-volume boxing, elite scrambling.
Brandon Moreno is a Mexican combat sports icon. He is the first Mexican-born champion in UFC history, known for his iron chin, slick boxing, and incredible back-takes in grappling scenarios. However, 2025 was a difficult year for Moreno. He suffered the first stoppage loss of his 34-fight professional career, a brutal second-round TKO at the hands of Tatsuro Taira. That loss pushed him down the rankings and forced him into a position where he must defend his spot against hungry up-and-comers.
Moreno’s path to victory lies in his experience and his grappling. While his boxing is crisp, engaging in a pure kickboxing match with a decorated striker like Kavanagh is incredibly risky. Moreno needs to use his jab to close the distance, initiate clinches against the fence, and drag Kavanagh into deep waters where the altitude and Moreno’s elite scrambling can take over. Moreno has been in five-round wars before; he knows how to pace himself.
Lone’er Kavanagh (England)
Record: 9-1
Fighting Out Of: London, England (Great Britain Top Team)
Style: Elite Kickboxing, Muay Thai, Purple Belt in BJJ.
Lone’er Kavanagh is one of the most exciting additions to the flyweight roster in recent years. A Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) graduate, Kavanagh is a 5-time K-1 World Champion who seamlessly transitioned to MMA. He debuted in the UFC in November 2024 with a win over Jose Ochoa, followed that up with a win over Felipe dos Santos, but hit a speed bump in August 2025 when he suffered his first pro loss via knockout to Charles Johnson.
Taking a five-round main event against a former champion, at elevation, on three weeks’ notice is a massive gamble, but fortune favors the bold. Kavanagh possesses lethal striking, specifically a devastating spinning back kick and lightning-fast hand combinations. He currently boasts an 88.9% takedown defense rate in the UFC. His path to victory is to keep the fight standing, use his superior footwork to pivot away from Moreno’s pressure, and land counter-strikes as Moreno lunges in.
The Prediction
The altitude and the late notice are massive factors here. Kavanagh has the striking arsenal to finish anyone at 125 pounds, but Moreno’s durability (save for the Taira fight) is legendary. If Kavanagh doesn’t find the chin early, the thin air of Mexico City will start to drain him by round three. Moreno’s veteran savvy should allow him to weather the early storm, secure takedowns in the championship rounds, and grind out a grueling, gritty victory in front of his home crowd.
Pick: Brandon Moreno via Unanimous Decision.
Co-Main Event Breakdown: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez
The Bantamweight Changing of the Guard?
The co-main event features a classic “veteran gatekeeper vs. surging prospect” narrative in the bantamweight division. #9 ranked Marlon “Chito” Vera takes on the red-hot #10 ranked Mexican native, David Martinez.
Marlon “Chito” Vera (Ecuador)
Record: 23-10-1
Fighting Out Of: Chone, Ecuador / Irvine, California
Style: Muay Thai, opportunistic submissions, slow starter.
Marlon Vera is one of the most battle-tested fighters in bantamweight history. Known for his indestructible chin, devastating leg kicks, and lethal elbows in the clinch, Vera is a nightmare for anyone over 15 minutes. However, his tendency to start slow and give away early rounds has cost him in crucial matchups. Vera needs to be aggressive from the opening bell against a fast-paced striker like Martinez. His path to victory is breaking Martinez down with calf kicks and pulling him into a gritty, ugly Muay Thai clinch war.
David “Black Spartan” Martinez (Mexico)
Record: 13-1
Fighting Out Of: Mexico City, Mexico
Style: Kickboxing (Black Belt), Karate (Black Belt), Orthopedic Surgeon.
David Martinez is not your average fighter. A practicing orthopedic surgeon and former Combate Global Bantamweight Champion, Martinez entered the UFC through DWCS in late 2024. He is currently riding a massive 9-fight win streak, including a dominant decision over Rob Font just a few months ago. With 10 of his 13 wins coming by knockout, Martinez is a sniper on the feet. Fighting in his hometown of Mexico City, where he trains daily, he will have absolutely zero altitude issues. His path to victory relies on his 4.85 Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) and his impeccable 100% takedown defense. He needs to stick and move, avoiding Vera’s heavy low kicks while peppering the Ecuadorian from the outside.
The Prediction
This is a dangerously tough fight for Vera. Martinez has the volume to outpoint Vera in the early rounds, and the hometown advantage means he will be fighting with a relentless pace. Vera’s legendary durability will likely keep him from being finished, but Martinez’s footwork and high striking output should allow him to bank the first two rounds. Vera will surge in the third, but it won’t be enough to overcome the points deficit.
Pick: David Martinez via Split Decision.
Main Card Breakdowns
Lightweight Bout: Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green
The Matchup:
Daniel “Golden Boy” Zellhuber represents the new wave of Mexican talent—tall, long, and highly technical. Standing 6’1″ with a massive 77-inch reach, Zellhuber uses his physical attributes to keep opponents at the end of his jab and slicing elbows. King Green (formerly Bobby Green) is the ultimate veteran. With over 50 professional fights, Green relies on his shoulder roll, phenomenal head movement, and constant trash talk to frustrate his opponents.
The Breakdown:
Green’s style relies heavily on his reflexes and cardiovascular endurance, both of which will be severely tested at 7,000 feet. Zellhuber, fighting at home, knows how to manage his range. Green will likely try to bait Zellhuber into a firefight, dropping his hands and feinting heavily. Zellhuber needs to stay disciplined, chop away at Green’s lead leg, and avoid lunging into Green’s slick counter right hand.
The Prediction:
Youth, length, and altitude are a trifecta of advantages for Zellhuber. Expect the Mexican prospect to stay on the outside, chewing up Green’s lead leg and landing hard straight rights down the pipe as Green slows down in the second and third rounds.
Pick: Daniel Zellhuber via Unanimous Decision.
Flyweight Bout: Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes
The Matchup:
Edgar Chairez is a highly aggressive Mexican flyweight who lives and dies by the sword. He boasts a terrifying submission game, particularly his anaconda and guillotine chokes, paired with heavy, looping punches. Felipe Bunes, the Brazilian, is a tall flyweight (5’7″) with a slick Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree and a dynamic kicking game.
The Breakdown:
This fight will likely be decided in the grappling transitions. Chairez is notorious for jumping on submissions the moment his opponents change levels. Bunes is comfortable off his back, but playing guard in MMA is a dangerous game, especially when judges favor top control. Chairez will march forward, looking to land a big overhand right to initiate a scramble. Bunes needs to use his teep kicks to keep Chairez at bay and look for reactive takedowns only when it’s safe.
The Prediction:
Chairez will have the crowd roaring with every forward step. The pressure will force Bunes into a desperation takedown, where Chairez will lock up his signature front choke.
Pick: Edgar Chairez via Submission (Guillotine Choke), Round 2.
Flyweight Bout: Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas
The Matchup:
Imanol Rodriguez is a 6-0 undefeated Mexican prospect making his promotional debut. A product of Team Cormier on The Ultimate Fighter Season 33, Rodriguez is a master of Sambo, holding a black belt in Judo and a brown belt in BJJ. He has five knockout wins and an incredibly aggressive style. Kevin Borjas from Peru is a gritty, durable brawler who loves to stand in the pocket and trade leather.
The Breakdown:
Rodriguez is a multi-tooled threat. He can knock you out or throw you on your head. Borjas has struggled historically with high-level grapplers. While Borjas has heavy hands, Rodriguez’s Sambo background means the clinch is a death trap for the Peruvian. Rodriguez will likely use his striking just long enough to close the distance, secure a body lock, and hit a beautiful Judo throw.
The Prediction:
The UFC matched Rodriguez up favorably here for his debut in front of a home crowd. Look for a massive takedown early, followed by suffocating top pressure and vicious ground-and-pound.
Pick: Imanol Rodriguez via TKO (Ground and Pound), Round 1.
Bantamweight Bout: Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco
The Matchup:
At just 21 years old, Santiago Luna (7-0) is one of the brightest prospects in the bantamweight division. He boasts four first-round finishes and is coming off a massive KO win over Quang Le at Noche UFC in 2025. He’s taking on the USA’s Angel Pacheco, a tough regional veteran looking to derail the hype train.
The Breakdown:
Luna is a suffocating grappler with a background as a 4-time Wrestling National Champ for Mexico. He averages zero takedowns allowed because he is the one dictating the wrestling exchanges. Pacheco needs to keep this fight at striking range at all costs. Luna is young, incredibly confident, and constantly improving his hands at Entram Gym.
The Prediction:
Luna is too fast, too strong, and too good of a wrestler for Pacheco to handle. Luna will find the chin early, or drag the fight to the mat and find the back.
Pick: Santiago Luna via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), Round 1.
Prelims Breakdown: The Hidden Gems of the Card
The prelims for UFC Fight Night 268 are packed with high-stakes regional rivalries and critical divisional positioning. If you’re tuning in early to catch the UFC Fight tonight live, these are the bouts that will set the tone for the evening.
Middleweight Bout: Ryan Gandra vs. Jose Daniel Medina
The Matchup:
Brazil’s Ryan Gandra brings thunderous power to the middleweight division, matching up against Bolivia’s Jose Daniel Medina. Medina is known for his iron will and ability to take a punch to give one, while Gandra relies on explosiveness and early finishes.
The Breakdown:
At 185 pounds, the altitude of Mexico City becomes even more of a factor. Larger men consume oxygen at a much higher rate. This fight heavily favors whoever can pace themselves better. Gandra has a habit of throwing everything into his overhand rights in the first three minutes. If Medina can survive the initial onslaught, he can take over late.
The Prediction:
Gandra will come out like a house on fire, looking for the early kill. Medina’s chin will hold up, but Gandra’s power will be enough to sway the judges in the first two rounds before a sloppy, exhausted third round.
Pick: Ryan Gandra via Unanimous Decision.
Women’s Bantamweight Bout: Ailin Perez (#7) vs. Macy Chiasson (#8)
The Matchup:
This is a massive fight for the women’s bantamweight rankings. Argentina’s Ailin Perez (#7) has taken the division by storm with her relentless chain-wrestling, aggressive trash talk, and dominating top control. Macy Chiasson (#8) from the United States is a massive bantamweight with excellent length, heavy clinch strikes, and a TUF pedigree.
The Breakdown:
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Chiasson wants to keep the fight at the end of her jab and use her knees if Perez enters the clinch. Perez, however, does not care about being hit on the way in. She will relentlessly shoot for double legs, single legs, and body locks. Chiasson’s takedown defense will be tested like never before.
The Prediction:
Perez’s grappling pace is overwhelming. Even if Chiasson stuffs the first two takedowns, Perez will keep chaining attempts together until they hit the mat. Once on top, Perez is too heavy and active to be bucked off easily.
Pick: Ailin Perez via Unanimous Decision.
Bantamweight Bout: Cristian Quiñonez vs. Kris Moutinho
The Matchup:
Mexico’s Cristian Quiñonez is a highly technical boxer with great lateral movement and slick combinations. Kris Moutinho is famous for his legendary durability, most notably taking absolute punishment from Sean O’Malley but never backing down. Moutinho is a zombie who simply marches forward, throwing volume.
The Breakdown:
Quiñonez is going to land, and he’s going to land often. The question is whether he will break his hands on Moutinho’s face before Moutinho breaks his spirit. Quiñonez needs to use his footwork to circle away from Moutinho’s pressure and not get trapped against the fence. Moutinho needs to turn this into an ugly, dirty boxing match.
The Prediction:
While Moutinho’s heart is unquestionable, Quiñonez is simply far too fast and technical. Fighting at home, Quiñonez will put on a striking clinic, racking up massive numbers on the scorecards.
Pick: Cristian Quiñonez via Unanimous Decision.
Featherweight Bout: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes
The Matchup:
Douglas Silva de Andrade is an absolute powerhouse. The Brazilian veteran has dynamite in his hands and throws every strike with fight-ending intentions. Colombia’s Javier Reyes is a smoother, more calculated kickboxer who relies on range management and attritional damage.
The Breakdown:
Silva de Andrade is getting older, and his explosive style is incredibly taxing on his gas tank. At the elevation of Arena CDMX, throwing looping overhands is a risky strategy. Reyes needs to survive the terrifying first round. He must use teeps to the body and low calf kicks to slow the Brazilian’s forward momentum.
The Prediction:
Silva de Andrade is dangerous for exactly five minutes. Once the adrenaline wears off and the thin air hits his lungs, Reyes will take over with volume and superior cardio.
Pick: Javier Reyes via Unanimous Decision.
Catchweight Bout: Regina Tarin vs. Ernesta Kareckaite
The Matchup:
Mexico’s Regina Tarin takes on Lithuania’s Ernesta Kareckaite in a bout that promises high-paced striking. Kareckaite is a tall, lanky striker who likes to fight on the outside, while Tarin is a bulldog who bites down on her mouthpiece and throws heavy hooks in the pocket.
The Breakdown:
Tarin will have the crowd firmly behind her, but Kareckaite’s physical advantages are significant. Kareckaite will look to keep Tarin on the end of her straight punches. Tarin must use head movement to slip inside and work the body, hoping to drain Kareckaite’s gas tank in the elevation.
The Prediction:
Tarin’s pressure will eventually break through Kareckaite’s long guard. The body work in the first round will pay dividends in the second and third, leading to a late stoppage.
Pick: Regina Tarin via TKO, Round 3.
Featherweight Bout: Erik Silva vs. Francis Marshall
The Matchup:
Venezuela’s Erik Silva is a powerful grappler with an aggressive top game. Francis Marshall, fighting out of the USA, is a well-rounded prospect who loves to strike but has a highly underrated wrestling base to fall back on.
The Breakdown:
Silva’s path to victory is singular: get the fight to the floor. If he’s forced to strike with Marshall for extended periods, he will be at a disadvantage. Marshall, on the other hand, needs to use his footwork, keep his back off the fence, and punish Silva’s takedown entries with uppercuts and knees.
The Prediction:
Marshall has shown solid takedown defense in the past and possesses the crisper boxing. He should be able to sprawl and brawl his way to a comfortable victory.
Pick: Francis Marshall via Unanimous Decision.
Middleweight Bout: Damian Pinas vs. Wes Schultz
The Matchup:
The card kicks off with a middleweight collision between Aruba’s Damian Pinas and the USA’s Wes Schultz. Both men are looking to make a statement and secure their footing in a crowded 185-pound division. Pinas brings a slick kickboxing style, while Schultz is a grinder who loves to press his opponents against the cage.
The Breakdown:
As the curtain-jerker, both men will want to put on a show. Pinas needs to keep the fight in the center of the Octagon. Schultz’s best chance is to make the fight as ugly as possible, tying Pinas up, stepping on his toes, and landing short elbows in the clinch. Given the altitude, a heavy grappling approach early could backfire if Schultz fails to secure the finish.
The Prediction:
Pinas’s striking is slightly more refined. If he can maintain distance, he will pick Schultz apart as the fight progresses and the elevation takes its toll on the American’s wrestling engine.
Pick: Damian Pinas via TKO, Round 2.
The Landscape of the UFC in 2026
As we look at the UFC schedule 2026, the global expansion of the sport is more apparent than ever. Events in Mexico City, London, Paris, and Abu Dhabi have become staples, reflecting the massive international talent pools.
The Flyweight Division (125 lbs)
The main event of UFC Fight Night 268 has massive implications for the flyweight division. With Alexandre Pantoja, Joshua Van, and Tatsuro Taira sitting at the absolute top of the food chain, the winner of Moreno vs. Kavanagh immediately inserts themselves into the title eliminator conversation. If Moreno wins, he proves he is still the undisputed gatekeeper to the elite. If Kavanagh wins, the UFC has a massive new British star to push alongside Leon Edwards and Tom Aspinall.
The Bantamweight Division (135 lbs)
The co-main event between Vera and Martinez is equally critical. Bantamweight remains the deepest, most shark-infested division in combat sports. David Martinez cracking the top 10 within a year of his debut is historic. A win over a legend like Marlon Vera would likely set Martinez up for a top-5 opponent next, bringing him terrifyingly close to a title shot.
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
UFC Fight Night 268: Moreno vs. Kavanagh is a quintessential fight fan’s card. It has everything: a legendary former champion defending his home soil against an undefeated phenom, a doctor looking to knock out a grizzled veteran, and a host of young, undefeated prospects making their marks on the biggest stage in the world.
The elevation of Arena CDMX will undeniably play a role, acting as a crucible that will break those who are unprepared and forge diamonds out of those who are. When checking the UFC results tomorrow morning, do not be surprised if we see massive upsets, exhausted warriors, and the birth of new superstars.
Make sure your alarms are set, your streaming devices are ready, and prepare for violence. The UFC card is locked in, and the fighters are ready to go to war.
